Core reading
China’s economy has great development resilience and potential, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed. We should correctly understand the general trend of China’s economic development, accurately grasp the strategic opportunities facing China’s economic development, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of the economy.
Since the beginning of this year, under the complicated and severe external environment, China’s national economy has continued to recover, the overall recovery has improved, and high-quality development has been solidly promoted. Although the current economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges, China’s economy has great development resilience and potential, and its long-term positive fundamentals have not changed. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out: "China’s development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities, but there are new developments and changes in opportunities and challenges." Report to the 20th CPC National Congress of the Communist Party of China made a major judgment that "China’s development faces new strategic opportunities", and at the same time emphasized that "China’s development has entered a period in which strategic opportunities and risk challenges coexist and uncertainties and unpredictable factors increase". Whether we can grasp new strategic opportunities, effectively deal with complicated risk challenges and firmly grasp the initiative of development depends fundamentally on whether we can concentrate on our own affairs. We should correctly understand the general trend of China’s economic development, firmly grasp the primary task of high-quality development, implement the new development concept completely, accurately and comprehensively, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity of the economy.
China’s overall economic recovery is improving, and high-quality development has been solidly promoted.
Since the beginning of this year, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core, all localities and departments have better coordinated the two overall domestic and international situations, better coordinated the prevention and control of epidemic situation and economic and social development, better coordinated development and safety, achieved a good start in the first quarter, continued to recover in the second quarter, and continued to recover steadily in July. In the first half of the year, the GDP increased by 5.5% year-on-year, which was significantly faster than the economic growth rate of 3% in the whole year of last year, and was also significantly faster than the economic growth rate of major developed economies in the world.
Consumption recovered and the investment structure continued to be optimized. Since the beginning of this year, the economy and society have fully resumed normal operation, and the order of production and life has been accelerated. China’s consumption has recovered. 1— In July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 7.3% year-on-year, service consumption increased rapidly, cultural and entertainment consumption continued to expand, and online retail remained active. The scale of investment in fixed assets continued to expand, and investment in high-tech industries grew rapidly. 1— In July, investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) increased by 3.4% year-on-year, of which investment in infrastructure and manufacturing increased by 6.8% and 5.7% respectively, and investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.5%.
Industrial upgrading was steadily advanced, and the recovery of service industry was accelerated. Since the beginning of this year, the three industries have continued to recover and the development foundation has been consolidated. Agricultural production remained stable, and summer grain production achieved a bumper harvest. Industrial production continued to recover, 1-mdash; In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.8% year-on-year. The green transformation achieved remarkable results, new energy-related industries developed well, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic cells and other products grew rapidly, and the driving force for upstream and downstream industries was also enhanced. The service industry grew rapidly, 1-mdash; In July, the national service industry production index increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate of contact and aggregation services such as accommodation, catering and transportation rebounded significantly.
The trade structure continued to be optimized. China has actively expanded its high-level opening to the outside world and promoted the optimization of trade structure. The scale of import and export of goods is generally stable and the trade surplus remains at a high level. 1— In July, the import and export of general trade with higher added value accounted for 65.4% of the total import and export, and the import and export of private enterprises increased by 6.7%, accounting for 52.9% of the total import and export; Imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road increased by 7.4% year-on-year, faster than the growth rate of all imports and exports.
Employment and people’s livelihood are strongly guaranteed. With the improvement of economic recovery, the policy of stabilizing employment has been effective continuously, and the employment situation has gradually improved. In the first half of the year, 6.78 million new jobs were created in cities and towns nationwide, an increase of 240,000 over the same period of last year. The average unemployment rate in national urban surveys is 5.3%. Residents’ income grew rapidly. In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of the national residents was 19,672 yuan, a real increase of 5.8% after deducting the price factor, which was significantly faster than the growth rate of last year.
Under the complicated and severe external environment, such as the weak recovery of the world economy, the high level of global inflation, and the prominent spillover effect of monetary policy tightening in major economies, China’s economic growth rate remains ahead of the major economies, demonstrating the strong resilience of China’s economic development. At the same time, we must see that the current economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges, mainly due to insufficient domestic demand, difficulties in some enterprises, many hidden risks in key areas, and complex and severe external environment. Among them, there are both cyclical and structural factors, both developmental and institutional obstacles, both supply-side and demand-side drivers, both domestic and international risks. However, in the long run and the general trend, China’s economy has great development resilience and potential, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed, and China’s development is facing new strategic opportunities.
China’s continuous development and growth has brought new development opportunities.
General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out: "Our greatest opportunity is our continuous development and growth". After the founding of New China, especially since the reform and opening-up, we have completed the industrialization process that developed countries have gone through for hundreds of years in decades, and at the same time made great achievements in various fields such as politics, culture, society and ecological civilization. Self-development is the most solid foundation for us to cope with risk challenges, and it also brings us more development opportunities.
China’s entry into a new stage of development contains an important opportunity to achieve new and greater development. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, historic achievements and changes have taken place in the cause of the Party and the state, which not only successfully promoted and expanded Chinese modernization, but also provided a more perfect institutional guarantee, a more solid material foundation and a more active spiritual force for Chinese modernization. We have completed the historical task of getting rid of poverty and building a well-off society in an all-round way, and entered a new development stage of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way. Based on the new development stage, implementing the new development concept, building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development, China will achieve new and greater development.
The historic leap of China’s economic strength contains an important opportunity for structural optimization and upgrading. Since the reform and opening up, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) has grown at an average annual rate of about 9%; In the past decade, the average annual growth rate has exceeded 6%, and the economic strength has achieved a historic leap. In 2022, China’s GDP accounted for about 18% of the global economy, ranking second in the world. On the basis of continuing to maintain the advantages of complete industrial system, leading industrial chain supporting capacity in the world, and ranking first in manufacturing scale in the world, China has promoted the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, promoted the rapid development of strategic emerging industries and advanced manufacturing industries, promoted the healthy development of digital economy, significantly improved its scientific and technological innovation capability, and continuously optimized its economic structure. Making full use of the advantages of China’s super-large-scale market, expanding domestic demand as a whole and deepening structural reform on the supply side, and forming a higher level dynamic balance between demand pulling supply and supply creating demand will continuously promote the optimization and upgrading of China’s economic structure and enhance our endogenous motivation to stabilize the basic economic disk and win the initiative in development.
Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s system is more mature and stereotyped, which provides us with an important opportunity to deal with uncertainty and turn crisis into opportunity. China’s socialist system has extraordinary organizational mobilization ability, overall coordination ability and implementation ability, and can concentrate on doing great things, difficult things and urgent things. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, our party has adhered to and improved the Socialism with Chinese characteristics system, promoted the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, and focused on the deployment of fundamental systems, basic systems and important systems that support the Socialism with Chinese characteristics system. With great political courage, we have comprehensively deepened reform, strengthened the reform of top-level design, resolutely eliminated the shortcomings of various institutional mechanisms, promoted the basic institutional framework in various fields, and achieved historic changes, systematic reshaping and overall reconstruction in many fields. At present, the century-old changes are accelerating, the changes of the world, the times and the history are unfolding in an unprecedented way, and the unstable and uncertain factors are increasing significantly. By giving full play to the advantages of Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s system, we can effectively cope with the uncertainty of the external environment, guard against and resist risks, and seize the opportunity to fight a strategic initiative war to turn danger into opportunity.
Firmly grasp the new strategic opportunities contained in the hundred-year change
General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out: "Entering the new stage of development, profound changes in the domestic and international environment have brought a series of new opportunities as well as a series of new challenges, which are the coexistence of crises, the organic nature of crises and the turning point of crises." At present, the great changes in the world that have never happened in a century have accelerated their evolution, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation have developed in depth, and the international forces have been deeply adjusted, which has brought new risks and challenges as well as new strategic opportunities for China’s development.
The world’s scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation have provided us with new opportunities to open up new fields and new tracks for economic development and to shape new development momentum and new advantages. At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution characterized by intelligence, networking and digitalization is profoundly changing the production and lifestyle of human beings, and technological breakthroughs represented by new energy, new materials and biotechnology are reconstructing the future of social productive forces. In this round of scientific and technological revolution, China is no longer an outsider, but a participant, a runner and even a leader in some fields. We adhere to the strategy of innovation-driven development and give full play to the leading role of scientific and technological innovation. Firmly grasping the historical opportunity of this round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, we will certainly be able to open up new fields and tracks for economic development and shape new kinetic energy and advantages for development.
Economic globalization provides us with new opportunities to promote high-level opening up. In recent years, although the trend of anti-globalization has risen, unilateralism and protectionism have obviously increased, economic globalization conforms to the general trend of world development and is an irreversible trend of the times. China has adopted a more proactive opening-up strategy, actively participated in the international division of labor, more effectively integrated into the global industrial chain, supply chain and value chain, and more actively expanded foreign exchanges and cooperation. The average contribution rate of China’s economy to world economic growth has exceeded 30% for many years, and China has maintained its position as the world’s largest trader of goods for many years, ranking second in the world in terms of foreign capital utilization and ranking first in the world in terms of foreign investment. It has contributed to global economic growth and created more strategic opportunities for its own development. Conforming to the general trend, based on the national conditions, correctly choosing the path and rhythm of integration into economic globalization, and making full use of domestic and international markets and resources can accelerate the construction of a new development pattern and promote high-quality development.
The positive changes in the balance of international power provide us with new opportunities to strengthen cooperation with emerging market countries and developing countries. In recent years, the international power balance is undergoing unprecedented positive changes. The rise of emerging market countries and developing countries in groups has gradually improved their position in the world economy and played a role in the international industrial division of labor, which has driven the speed, breadth and depth of international pattern adjustment and is fundamentally changing the world political and economic map. As the largest developing country in the world, strengthening cooperation with emerging market countries and developing countries can not only complement each other’s advantages and promote the developing countries to enhance their endogenous development momentum, but also expand the external space for China’s economic development and create new strategic opportunities.
The reform of global governance system provides us with new opportunities to play a greater role in global governance. In the past few decades, the international economic power has undergone a profound evolution, but the global governance system has failed to reflect the new pattern, which is not representative and inclusive enough. The international community is increasingly calling for the reform of the global governance system. Together with other countries, China has promoted the development of the international order and global governance system in a more just and rational direction, promoted the development of economic globalization in a more open, inclusive, inclusive, balanced and win-win direction, and promoted the building of a community of human destiny, which not only creates a good international environment for the development of the world economy, but also brings new strategic opportunities for China’s development.
Economic fluctuation is a normal phenomenon in the market economy, and the economy always runs in fluctuation. We should not only see the short-term fluctuations, but also take effective measures to continuously promote the sustained improvement of economic operation. More importantly, we should correctly understand the long-term positive development trend of China’s economy, fully understand and make good use of new strategic opportunities, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, continuously expand China’s economic strength, scientific and technological strength and comprehensive national strength, and enhance China’s viability, competitiveness, development and sustainability.
(The author is the former president of China Renmin University)
