On June 29th, German Chancellor Angela Merkel (front right) and French President Macron (front left) took a group photo in Berlin, Germany.
"The recession at the economic level is transmitted to the social level, with the rise of extreme nationalism and populism, and then transmitted to the political level, forming political turmoil. This is a logical clue for problems in Europe."
Text/Global magazine reporter Zhang Yue
Sixty years ago, the leaders of France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg signed the Treaty on the European Economic Community and the Treaty on the European Atomic Energy Community (hereinafter collectively referred to as the Treaty of Rome) in Rome, marking the birth of the European Community, the predecessor of the European Union.
The European Community has ended hundreds of years of wars in the European continent and brought peace to Europeans. It has always been regarded as a model of regional integration. However, this "model" is facing more and more challenges: economic depression, political disunity, the rise of populism, refugee crisis and terrorist threats …
Why are these problems in Europe? Where will Europe go? On these issues, Global magazine interviewed Feng Zhongping, vice president of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.
Step too fast
Global magazine: The Treaty of Rome in 1957 made the predecessor of the European Union, the European Community, which was once regarded as a model of regional integration. Some even said that the European Community would become a "United States of Europe". The EU is now facing many challenges. Where is the root of the problem? Has the EU itself made some mistakes in the process of promoting integration?
Feng Zhongping:The story of post-war Europe is the story of integration. The initial motivation for the establishment of the European Community was to eliminate wars and achieve long-term peace in Europe. There were two world wars in Europe in the 20th century, and integration meant to keep Germany in the cage of integration. After World War II, Europeans felt that if the "German problem" could not be solved, the war would break out again, so there was a particularly strong will to promote integration at that time.
Therefore, integration was a "peace project" or a "political project" at first, with economic benefits, and it was very stable at first. However, after the end of the Cold War, the pace of EU development was too fast, from 12 countries at the end of the Cold War to 28 countries. The level of national development within the alliance has become more differentiated, and the demands for interests are different. The motives of the new member countries, especially the Central and Eastern European countries that joined the EU after 2004, are mainly for economic benefits, but after joining, they did not obviously feel that it brought them much benefit. Coupled with the international financial crisis in 2008, the cohesion within Europe has been declining.
There are mistakes in the expansion of European integration. If a member state does not get economic benefits, its support and loyalty to the EU will be greatly reduced.
If the European debt crisis widens the contradiction between the North and the South, causing the southern European countries to fall into crisis, and the northern European countries act as "fire captains", then the refugee crisis highlights the contradiction between the East and the West. Western European countries are willing to open their doors to accept refugees, while Eastern European countries refuse to accept refugees.
The problems in Europe are actually the problems faced by the whole west, that is, the pressure brought by the new round of economic globalization and the intensification of polarization between the rich and the poor. Some signs actually appeared before 2008, but the financial crisis and the European debt crisis exposed and aggravated the inherent contradictions. The recession at the economic level will inevitably be transmitted to the social level, with the rise of extreme nationalism and populism, and then it will inevitably be transmitted to the political level, forming political turmoil. This is a logical clue to the problems in Europe.
As a direct result, people began to oppose European integration. Anti-European integration is actually anti-globalization. Britain’s "Brexit" is an example of turning anti-globalization thoughts into reality. Britain has thousands of reasons to "leave the European Union", but the last straw that overwhelms the camel is immigration. During the referendum on "Brexit" last year, one of the most attractive views for the British people was that after leaving the EU, the population of other EU member countries would no longer flood into the UK. People can see that anti-immigration has become the core word of anti-globalization and anti-integration
Will not disintegrate.
Global magazine: Will Britain’s "Brexit" trigger a chain reaction that will lead to the disintegration of the EU?
Feng Zhongping:There have been two particularly big concerns in Europe: one is whether the euro zone will disintegrate and the unified currency will disintegrate due to the outbreak and spread of the European debt crisis; The second question is whether Britain’s "Brexit" will become the first domino to fall, triggering the disintegration of the whole EU.
Britain’s "Brexit" marks the climax of European anti-integration forces. People are very worried about the emergence of a second Britain. Will France (Brexit)? Will the Netherlands (Brexit)? Coupled with Trump’s election as president of the United States in November last year, people are worried that it is likely to further stimulate the wave of anti-globalization in Europe.
However, from the current point of view, Britain’s "Brexit" has not had the chain effect that people are worried about, and Macron’s victory in the French general election is an important symbol.
The "National Front" led by Le Pen, Macron’s opponent and right-wing candidate, is an extreme anti-EU political party. It can get a very high support rate in France, which actually reflects the strong anti-integration and anti-globalization forces in France, but it was finally defeated by Macron, indicating that this force has not yet gained the upper hand.
The French election marks that European integration has not ebbed, and it is a sign that the situation of European integration has improved.
Macron is the most pro-EU politician in recent years, or the most supportive of European integration. His coming to power may bring an opportunity to the EU, that is, France and Germany will reunite and continue to play the role of twin engines as the locomotive of European integration. After he was elected president, he immediately visited Germany to discuss with Merkel how to make European integration move forward.
Another sign that the EU is improving is that the European economy is improving. This year, the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other authoritative organizations for the economies of the euro zone and the European Union are relatively optimistic. The EU is expected to achieve positive growth for all its member countries for three consecutive years after the financial crisis. In addition, the unemployment rate in Europe is also declining. From 2016 to this year, the unemployment rate has dropped below 10%, reaching the pre-crisis level. The signal of data transmission is that the most dangerous period of EU integration has passed, and now it has entered a period of introspection, adjustment and reform.
Must be reformed
Global magazine: If the EU has entered a period of reform, what is the main direction of reform? What obstacles do you face?
Feng Zhongping:At present, the reform of the EU mainly includes two levels, one is the national level and the other is the European level.
At the national level, we should focus on countries such as France and Italy, especially France. If Macron can’t guide the French to carry out real reforms, populism will still come back, and the prospect of the EU is still not optimistic.
France needs to carry out structural reforms, revitalize the economy, reduce the operating costs of the economy and improve its competitiveness, that is, to reduce welfare, reduce public expenditure, reform the labor market, untie enterprises and let them regain their competitiveness. But everyone knows the problems in France, and the resistance to reform is too great. Both Chirac and Hollande’s reforms ended in shelving. Macron served as the Minister of Economy in the Hollande government at that time, and put forward a reform plan for Macron, which was not achieved in the end. This shows that the reform has great resistance in France.
Fortunately, the party led by Macron won a majority of seats in the National Assembly, which ensured that he not only had the will to reform, but also had the ability to reform.
France is said to be the most unwilling country in the world. As soon as the reform was carried out, people took to the streets to demonstrate. One of the lessons that European countries should do is to reform the social welfare system and improve the competitiveness of products in the face of economic globalization. This lesson is being done in other countries, but not in France. Some critics say that no matter who wins, Macron and Le Pen get a "sick man of Europe".
The reform at the EU level is mainly to improve the defects at the EU system level. When Macron visited Germany after his election, he proposed to establish a "euro zone fiscal union", which is actually the most urgent thing in Europe now.
Part of the reason why the European debt crisis occurred is that although the European Union unified its currency, it did not unify its finances. There is a unified central bank, but there is no unified Ministry of Finance and unified budget.
Within the EU, there is a big gap in the level of development between countries. Normally speaking, it is safer to unify the currency only when the economic development level between countries is roughly the same, but the European Union unified the currency without meeting this premise, which is itself a defect in the monetary system. Macron’s proposal to build a unified fiscal union in the euro zone is to avoid another debt crisis.
Reform is very difficult. Whether Macron’s reform can be promoted or not, and whether the euro zone’s reform can be promoted, remains to be seen. But these are all reforms that the EU must make, not reforms that can be done or not. For the long-term development of the EU and France, these reforms are unavoidable.
Multi-speed Europe
Global magazine: The European Union has also noticed the problem of unbalanced internal development, so it puts forward the concept of "multi-speed Europe" with the aim of realizing the integration of different speeds. Do you think "multi-speed Europe" can be realized from the operational level?
Feng Zhongping:Speed-by-speed integration is not what the EU wants to see, and there is no way out. If this is not done, integration may stagnate. In order to avoid stagnation, we must adopt a new integration path.
The enlargement of the European Union and the divergence of internal interests determine that it cannot move forward at the same speed. The EU itself does not want to be divided into core areas or marginal areas, which is not conducive to internal unity.
In fact, the EU is already a "two-speed Europe". For example, some member States have not joined the euro zone or the Schengen Agreement. I think it is a realistic approach to be forced to propose "multi-speed Europe". "Multi-speed Europe" has a very important premise: it must be open, not form a small collective circle, and other countries should be allowed to participate at any time when conditions are ripe.
However, Central and Eastern European countries are firmly opposed to "multi-speed Europe". They are worried about being marginalized and think that this is splitting the EU. But I think France, Germany and Italy are determined to do this.
Global magazine: After facing a series of challenges, is the influence of the EU being weakened in the world?
Feng Zhongping:The biggest influence of the EU in the world is its economic influence, or the right to speak economically. Its economic status depends on three major factors: a unified market, a unified currency, and its emergence as the unified identity of the European Union in international multilateral institutions.
The position of the European Union in economic affairs remains particularly important. In the field of political, diplomatic and security, the influence of the EU mainly depends on the cooperation among member governments. This part of the power is not handed over to supranational institutions, but is still in the hands of member States. Undeniably, in recent years, the European Union has encountered many difficulties and crises, which have led to an increase in its internal contradictions and centrifugal separation from Germany, and its international voice has indeed been weakened. The future influence will depend on the success of the above reforms.
America and Europe are drifting away?
Global magazine: After Trump was elected president of the United States, he announced the implementation of "American priority". What impact will this have on the relationship between the United States and Europe?
Feng Zhongping:After Trump came to power, the differences between Europe and the United States did increase. The thinking of "American priority" is contradictory to the position that Europe and the United States jointly safeguard the transatlantic alliance in the past. In the past few decades, the president and government of the United States have always regarded the common interests of Europe and the United States as very important. Trump puts American interests first. In this case, Europe and the United States began to disagree on many issues.
For example, on the climate issue, Europeans firmly upheld the Paris Agreement, while Trump announced his withdrawal. On the NATO issue, Trump mainly emphasized that European countries should pay military expenses and dilute collective defense. My view is that as long as Trump is on the stage and the "US priority" policy does not change, the relationship between Europe and the United States may be alienated, and the relationship between the two sides of the Atlantic may gradually drift away.
Although I don’t think NATO will be dissolved yet, the relationship between the two sides of the Atlantic will become cold. For the EU, this may have three effects.
First of all, the EU will reduce its dependence on the United States, especially on defense, and increase its own common defense construction. This trend has now begun to appear.
Second, the EU will pay more attention to peripheral issues such as the Middle East issue than before, and propose solutions, instead of relying mainly on the United States to solve these problems as before.
Third, the EU will expand its "circle of friends". It thinks that if the United States is not too reliable, it will seek to ease relations with some emerging economies, including the Russian Federation, and will pay more attention to its relations with China.
On May 22nd, in Berlin, Germany, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Sch? uble (left) and French Economy Minister Bruno lemerre attended the press conference. The two sides stated that they would take measures to consolidate the euro.