"Cinema Plus", how to perform this "good play"?

At 6: 30 pm on January 13th, at Jindi Shangdu Store of China Film Oriental Studios in Xuzhou, the local talk show group "Shengxi Comedy" in Xuzhou started on time. Within 90 minutes, five talk show actors took turns to take the stage and made witty remarks. After watching the talk show, Yu Zhou, a student of Jiangsu Normal University, and her roommate bought a comedy movie, The Annual Meeting Can’t Stop! Tickets for ". Eighteen minutes before the movie started, they flipped through the books in the "Shadow Branch" in the cinema.

Go, go to the cinema, watch a talk show, listen to a concert, play a script, and even eat a hot pot … Since last year, with the revival of cinema popularity, the diversified "opening" ways of cinemas have attracted attention. Why do cinemas create consumption scenes other than watching movies? What does "Cinema Plus" bring to cinemas?

Beyond the film, add new "drama"

Many people have long been used to buying popcorn and drinks and eating snacks while watching movies. The reporter heard that you can eat hot pot while watching movies at Sanke Cinema in Renhengcang Street, Suzhou, so he planned to have a taste. When the "Taobao Film" App was opened at 4pm on January 13th, the reporter found that there were 14 groups of seats for two in the hot pot hall of this cinema, and tickets were purchased by groups, including a movie ticket of 68 yuan and a set meal of "Guixiang Sour Soup for Two" of 258 yuan. At noon the next day, there was only one group of double seats on the edge, and there were three groups of seats left in the afternoon. At 3 pm on the 14th, when the reporter walked into the hot pot hall 25 minutes before the opening ceremony, he found that the hot pot was ready on the table in front of the seat, and snacks, leeks, staple food and drinks had been served. There is a small lamp on the table and a service bell with buttons such as menu and water addition. Each group of seats is quite far apart, so you can eat hot pot and communicate in a low voice without worrying about affecting others.

Before the movie starts, the hot pot set meal is ready. Hongye

Ma Honglei, supervisor of Sanke Yinghua Cinema Suzhou Renhengcang Street Store, said that Sanke Cinema has settled in Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and other places. The store in Suzhou opened in early December last year, with a hot pot hall and two dining halls. You can watch movies without ordering, but the guests basically order, so you should buy good tickets early. Eating while watching movies is a new form, which has high expectations of the audience and also tests the service level of cinemas. The waiter will try his best to deliver all the meals before the movie starts, and will enter the venue as soon as the bell rings.

There are still a few cinemas that change their "posture" of watching movies, and more cinemas are innovating in service items. Since the live broadcast of basketball games, the "Cinema Plus" exploration of Wuxi World Studios has gradually increased to talk shows, concerts, screenplays, exhibitions and other activities. Wuxi Jinyi Studios Huiju Store staged five talk shows, two concerts and six children’s dramas last year. Allergy Hua, head of the marketing department of the studio, told reporters that last year, Jinyi Huiju Store signed a contract with Shanghai Zhitong Culture Communication Co., Ltd., and Shanghai Zhitong made a children’s drama performance plan. After the two sides finalized the performance time, they applied for approval. In order to present a better performance effect, Shanghai Children’s Home has also invested in the renovation of a screening hall, which will be used as a special performance hall for children’s dramas, and movies can still be shown in free time.

Not only has the role of the projection hall changed, but the cinema has also added other functional spaces. In the lobby of IMAX Super Studios in suzhou bay Studios, the reporter saw rows of tall bookshelves. Lu Changjun, executive director of Suzhou Impression Film Co., Ltd., the construction party of the studio, introduced that the lobby is about 500 square meters, the book bar accounts for more than 300 square meters, and there are more than 3,000 books. Books are not for sale. If customers want to take them away, just let the staff know. There is no need to register or return them.

Yancheng Cinema, which was founded in 1956, was upgraded to a public cultural space integrating multifunctional theater, exhibition space, humanities bookstore, trendy cultural creation and coffee and tea sales in August 2022, and its name was changed to "Yancheng Cinema 1956 Star Theater". Last year, drama, talk show, children’s drama, immersive drama and other forms of performances were presented here.

In August last year, Jindi Shangdu Store of China Film Oriental Studios in Xuzhou cooperated with the district library to set up the "Shadow Branch Library", which was loaned and returned to the municipal and district libraries and became one of the first four "scholarly cinemas" in the city.

Attracting passenger flow and coping with homogeneous competition

Why do cinemas take the "Cinema Plus" route one after another?

A number of cinema managers told reporters that cinemas are highly dependent on schedules and films, and it is often hard to get a ticket when there are popular schedules and movies, and vice versa. According to the data released by the Office of the National Film Industry Development Special Fund Management Committee on WeChat WeChat official account, in December last year, Jiangsu’s film box office was 360 million yuan, with 744,000 screenings and 8.983 million people watching movies. Calculated, an average of 12 people watched a movie, and one ticket averaged 40 yuan.

Allergic Hua said that relying on the box office is not a long-term strategy for the development of cinemas. Only by giving cinemas a variety of functions based on film screening can we attract more audiences to enter cinemas, make up for the impact brought by the schedule and effectively improve the ability of cinemas to resist market risks. Because the "Huiju" commercial body is mainly parent-child customers, in addition to performing children’s dramas, her cinema plans to plan more parent-child activities.

Song Jun, president of Xuzhou Film Association, told reporters that the "scholarly cinema" was built because the crowds watching movies and reading books are highly coincident, and citizens can use their spare time to read books while waiting for the movie, which not only makes it convenient for readers to borrow and return books and make up for the lack of closing the library at night, but also increases the popularity and vitality of the cinema and realizes the resource sharing and win-win cooperation between the cinema and the library. Since last year, the Propaganda Department of Xuzhou Municipal Committee and the Municipal Press and Publication Bureau have launched a voluntary pairing between cinemas and bookstores, and guided more people watching movies into bookstores and reading people into cinemas through mutual recognition of members, book coupons for watching movies, and book purchases. Many cinemas in Xuzhou have also upgraded the original "300-seat" cinema to create an environment suitable for small theater performances. Only by actively adapting to the times, adapting to the market, amplifying comprehensive cultural functions and meeting people’s diverse cultural consumption needs can cinemas attract more customers and convert non-cinema attendance into cinema attendance.

"Cinema Plus" is also the result of competition. The reporter learned from the Provincial Film Bureau that 80 cinemas and 450 screens were added in Jiangsu last year, including 23 cinemas and 79 screens in towns and villages. By the end of last year, there were 1,232 cinemas, 7,738 screens and 1.025 million seats in the province. Li Jun, the marketing director of Wuxi Great World Studios, said frankly that on the one hand, the cinema’s single role of staying in the film screening place cannot meet the needs of consumers; On the other hand, the industry urgently needs self-innovation, solves the serious problem of homogenization competition, and promotes the quality and efficiency of operation through the implementation of new business models.

Lu Changjun said: "Online and offline surveys have found that at present, audiences are increasingly willing to pay for quality, paying more attention to quality rather than ticket prices, but now there are too many homogeneous cinemas and there is a lack of high-quality cinemas. Therefore, we enhance consumers’ experience through design creativity and hardware facilities, and create a third living place independent of home and office, so that consumers can feel a different film culture space, thus enhancing their competitiveness. "

Zhou Kai, PhD supervisor and professor of Nanjing University and president of Nanjing Film Association, analyzed that the "Cinema Plus" model has some helpless factors, but it reflects the positive adjustment of cinemas in the current market situation and is an innovative coping strategy.

There is a way to innovate, and the main business still needs to be adhered to.

Did "Cinema Plus" realize the expectation of increasing passenger flow? Zhang Jun, manager of nanjing xinjiekou Wanda Studios, told reporters that talk show was introduced in June 2022. Last year, he obviously felt that the audience’s enthusiasm was rising, and there were old fans, new faces and many foreign tourists. The frequency of talk shows changed from once a week to once a day, with an average attendance rate of about 70%. In Xuzhou China Film Oriental Studios Jindi Shangdu Store, since the talk show started in November last year, there have been performances on Friday and Saturday, and almost all the venues are full. Yancheng Cinema 1956 Star Theater introduced many famous dramas that are hard to get a ticket from other places, invited famous domestic groups such as Mahua FunAge and gulou west, and also welcomed many foreign audiences, with an average attendance rate of over 85%.

What is the economic benefit of "Cinema Plus"? Zhai Jingshuang, manager of Jindi Shangdu Store of China Film Oriental Studios, revealed that in 2022, the box office revenue was about 2.5 million yuan, and the number of people watching movies reached 70,000. In 2023, the box office revenue exceeded 7 million yuan and the number of people watching movies increased to 170,000. Song Jun analyzed that in 2023, the average box office of Xuzhou cinema increased by about 30% compared with that in 2022, and the cinema increased by three times. Apart from the factors of film market recovery, the exploration of diversified formats also contributed.

In Wuxi Jinyi Studios Huiju Store, the average audience of children’s drama performance is about 120, and the attendance rate is over 80%. The income of children’s drama is basically the same as that of showing movies. In addition to a signing partner, there are three or four children’s drama production units consulting cooperation matters.

Wuxi Jinyi Studios Huiju Store staged a children’s drama. (Photo courtesy of the interviewee)

In 2023, the total revenue of IMAX Super Studios in suzhou bay Studios is about 15 million yuan, of which more than 10 million yuan is box office revenue. Lu Changjun said: "Some cinemas may not have many audiences on weekdays, but there are many people here on weekdays and holidays. This kind of achievement is a’ head’ in the theater. "

In the Litchi Store of Happiness Blue Ocean International Studios, "non-ticket" revenue accounted for nearly 40%. Dong Lu, general manager of the store, said that from exhibitions to concerts to birthday parties and adult ceremonies, they have been exploring diversified operations and providing "through-train" services such as venue, catering, setting planning and hosting photography. The "personal tailor" project has become the norm.

How does "Cinema+"avoid homogenization? Song Jun believes that different cinemas choose to increase different formats according to regional location and surrounding resources. For example, cinemas in the city center can increase entertainment activities such as concerts, talk shows and folk music concerts, and cinemas in administrative districts can increase conference services, while those in communities are suitable for holding more parent-child activities.

Dong Lu will realize that the attempt of "cinema+"should also be innovative. Last March, they introduced a shadow play performance, which attracted many audiences. The interactive science drama Fantasy Physics Show, which was launched last summer vacation, stimulated children’s imagination and guided scientific thinking, and was also very popular. Dong Lu said that although creativity is easy to be copied, it is still the king of "cinema+"to actively go ahead and ensure the diversity of performance quality and types.

In Zhou Kai’s view, under the division of labor system in modern society, the cross-industry ability of cinemas is relatively limited, and there is also a lack of corresponding brand effect. For example, catering projects in cinemas may be difficult to compete with catering giants. If the cinema is simply regarded as a multi-functional cultural complex, it is not a sustainable business strategy to introduce the consumption items unrelated to the film and stack the items continuously. Zhou Kai believes that the core competitiveness of cinemas mainly lies in its strong film culture atmosphere. Therefore, the "cinema+"model should be closely centered on movies, and make full use of film culture to empower the development of cross-industry projects. For example, consider the project of "script killing" based on the creation of released films, or selling products such as food and clothing appearing in films, so as to turn the cinema into a miniature movie theme park, create a consumption experience closer to the film culture, and thus enhance the core competitiveness of the cinema.

The relevant person in charge in Jiangsu said that many cinemas in Jiangsu tried to introduce innovative operation modes, increase consumption scenes and formats, and while providing consumers with richer experience content, they also improved the utilization rate of cinemas in non-prime time and broadened the "non-ticket" income channels. Cinema operators also need to pay attention to the fact that "Cinema Plus" is a blend of culture and culture, and cinemas should always focus on film screening. New formats cannot destroy consumers’ viewing experience, and other formats must also be legal and compliant.

Grasping the institutional advantage and transforming it into the key link of governance efficiency

The Socialism with Chinese characteristics system is a great achievement made by the Party leading the people through long-term exploration, and an important support to promote the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, with strong vitality and great superiority. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee emphasized that it is necessary to "uphold and improve the fundamental system, basic system and important system that support Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s system" and "better transform China’s institutional advantages into the effectiveness of state governance". The system is fundamental, overall, stable and long-term, and the institutional advantage is the fundamental advantage of Socialism with Chinese characteristics. To give full play to the institutional advantage and realize effective governance, we must grasp four key links.
Strengthen institutional self-confidence
Institutional self-confidence stems from the rational identification and persistent belief in the system, which is an important social and psychological basis for the development of institutional advantages. Only when most members of society enhance institutional identification and strengthen institutional self-confidence, can all systems be consciously observed, strictly implemented and earnestly maintained, and institutional advantages can be better transformed into governance efficiency.
Guide people to fully understand the remarkable advantages of the Socialism with Chinese characteristics system. Since the founding of New China, the Party has led the people to make great achievements in socialist construction and created "China Miracles" one after another. From "poor and white" to the second largest economy in the world, it has created a miracle of economic growth; From "no tractor can be built" to a world manufacturing power, it has created a miracle of scientific and technological development; From insufficient food and clothing to a well-off society in an all-round way, it has created a miracle of improving people’s livelihood; The incidence of rural poverty dropped from 97.5% in 1978 to 1.7% in 2018, creating an anti-poverty miracle; On the road of modernization, it took China 70 years to complete the journey that the western countries have traveled for hundreds of years, and maintained long-term social stability, creating a miracle in the history of modernization. Numerous "China Miracles" have highlighted the remarkable advantages of the Socialism with Chinese characteristics system and outlined the trajectory of the Chinese nation’s leap from standing up and becoming rich to becoming strong. Practice has proved that the Socialism with Chinese characteristics system is an important guarantee for the development and progress of contemporary China. Theoretical workers should strengthen institutional research and theoretical propaganda, deeply interpret the "institutional code" of socialist construction achievements, and strengthen the institutional confidence of the whole party and society.
Guide people to deeply understand the theoretical basis of Socialism with Chinese characteristics system. Socialism with Chinese characteristics system is the product of combining the basic principles of Marxism with the concrete reality of China, and the result of the long-term evolution of China’s institutional civilization. It has a profound historical accumulation and cultural foundation, meets the needs of China’s social development, and has won the support of people of all ethnic groups. In contemporary China, apart from the Socialism with Chinese characteristics system, no other system can effectively solve the governance problem of China. Any copying of other countries’ institutional models will make China fall into the whirlpool of governance dilemma and confuse China. Strengthening institutional self-confidence means explaining to the whole party and society the inevitability and rationality of the existence of Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s fundamental system, basic system and important system, and guiding people to deeply understand the truth that only relying on Socialism with Chinese characteristics system can create a better life, realize national modernization and realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
Strengthen institutional awareness
Ideas determine attitudes, and thoughts determine behavior. Only when a person respects and respects the system in his heart can he have the consciousness of obeying the system. Only when a society firmly establishes the system consciousness can it give the system authority, and the system can better play a positive role in resolving contradictions, building order and guiding behavior in national governance.
Strengthen the awareness of rules in handling affairs according to the system. System consciousness, first of all, is the rule consciousness of doing things according to the system. System is a kind of behavior rule, and it is the most important rule in political and social life. Only with rules can we form a square. The Supreme Leader General Secretary emphasized: "The key to governing a country and a society is to establish rules, stress rules and abide by rules." The fundamental requirement of obeying the rules is to consciously abide by the system and earnestly safeguard it. Its important premise is to firmly establish a sense of rules in handling affairs according to the system. Only by paying attention to the system and respecting the rules ideologically can we achieve that our behavior will not cross the line and exceed the rules. It is necessary to strengthen institutional education, guide every party member and every citizen to strengthen the awareness of rules, form the habit of doing things according to the system, and be a conscious follower and firm defender of the system. It is necessary to give play to the disciplinary function of the system, so that acts that violate the rules and break the rules will be punished as they should, and the consciousness of the whole party and society to abide by the rules of the system will be enhanced.
Strengthen the thinking mode of using the system to solve problems. Xiao Zhi’s rule of affairs, great wisdom and effective governance of the country require not only the whole party and society to consciously abide by the rules of the system, but also party committees, governments and the masses at all levels to be good at using the system to solve the problems they face. Socialism with Chinese characteristics system is a scientific system formed by the Party and people in long-term practice and exploration. It is an institutional arrangement that is suitable for China’s national conditions and has distinctive China characteristics. It provides an important guarantee for national governance and basic norms for the orderly operation of society. No matter party member, leading cadres or ordinary people, they should think and do things on the institutional track and pay attention to the positive functions of the system. Ordinary people should learn to express their interests reasonably and legally through institutional channels, be good at using the system to solve interest disputes and safeguard their legitimate rights and interests; Leading cadres at all levels should regard the system as an important means of social governance, the basic basis for promoting all work and the fundamental way to solve problems, be good at using the system to deal with contradictions among the people, realize and safeguard the fundamental interests of the people, and promote economic and social development. Similarly, party committees and governments at all levels must also strengthen the thinking mode of using the system to solve problems and promote various undertakings on the track of the system.
Maintain institutional authority
If the system is to be strictly implemented, it must have authority. Institutional authority, based on jurisprudence, is a reliable guarantee for the orderly operation of a country ruled by law. Once institutional authority is destroyed, the rule of law cannot become the basic way of state governance, and the country will fall into the quagmire of inefficient governance and social disorder. To transform institutional advantages into governance efficiency, the whole party and society must consciously safeguard institutional authority.
Ensure the rigid constraints of the system. Only when the system becomes a rigid constraint can it gain people’s heartfelt support and sincere belief and have authority. To ensure the rigid restraint of the system, first, we must ensure that the system is implemented. Once the system is formulated, it must be implemented. We must never turn the system into a "scarecrow". We must make all systems work effectively, implement the system provisions, and realize the management of power, work according to the system, and people by the system. Second, we must maintain the seriousness of the system. The system is a hard constraint, not a "rubber band". We must ensure that everyone is equal before the system and abide by the system without exception. We must never allow "flexibility" or privilege in violation of the system, and we must never allow "secret doors" or "skylight" outside the system. Third, we should punish the "sword" by hanging high. We must resolutely crack down on the behavior of stepping on the "red line" of the system, crossing the "bottom line" of the system and breaking into the "minefield" of the system, and we will never tolerate it and guard against the "broken window effect". On the basis of ensuring the rigid constraint of the system, leading cadres at all levels should play the role of "leading geese" to drive the whole party and society to consciously respect the system and safeguard its authority.
Promote system reform and improvement. To have authority, the system must be a scientific system that meets the needs of practice and is effective. Socialism with Chinese characteristics system is a scientific system that meets the needs of China society, so it can establish institutional authority, but it does not mean that this system will no longer have room for development and perfection. On the contrary, if we want to effectively safeguard the authority of the Socialism with Chinese characteristics system, we must constantly promote the reform and improvement of this system according to the development of practice. On the one hand, we should correctly understand the relationship between institutional self-confidence and institutional perfection. The Supreme Leader’s General Secretary emphasized: "Institutional self-confidence is not self-esteem and self-satisfaction, nor is it a standstill, but a unity of firm institutional self-confidence and continuous reform and innovation." Only by promoting institutional reform and improvement can we have reason to strengthen institutional confidence. On the other hand, we must always adhere to the people’s position in the system reform. The Socialism with Chinese characteristics system is the people’s choice, which embodies the people’s will and fundamental interests. Only by advancing the system reform from the people’s position can the system be sincerely supported by the people and the authority of the system be effectively safeguarded.
Strict system implementation
The vitality of the system lies in implementation, and the advantages of the system can only be reflected in implementation. No matter how good the system is, if it is not implemented, it will exist in name only, and the virtual system is more harmful than no system, because the virtual system not only makes the society fall into the chaos without system, but also indulges the behavior of trampling on the system, which will greatly damage the authority of the system. To give full play to the advantages of Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s system, we must effectively improve the system execution of Party committees and governments at all levels and leading cadres at all levels, and ensure that all systems are strictly implemented.
Improve the authoritative and efficient system implementation mechanism. National governance depends on system, system implementation depends on mechanism, and authoritative and efficient system implementation mechanism is the fundamental guarantee to improve system implementation. First, improve the ideological guidance mechanism of system implementation, guide people to deeply understand the great significance of Socialism with Chinese characteristics system in promoting national governance, realizing national rejuvenation and enhancing people’s well-being, unify thoughts and actions with the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central Committee, consciously maintain a high degree of consistency with the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core in ideological and political actions, and enhance the consciousness and firmness of implementing the system. The second is to improve the organization and leadership mechanism of system implementation, strengthen the party’s leadership over system implementation, effectively improve the system implementation of leading cadres, and give play to the leadership advantages of the party and the exemplary and backbone role of leading cadres at all levels in system implementation. The third is to improve the cooperative linkage mechanism of system implementation, strengthen the work coordination among departments, get through the "middle obstruction" and smooth the "microcirculation", form a system implementation situation with smooth communication, mutual cooperation and up-and-down linkage, and improve the efficiency of system implementation. The fourth is to improve the accountability mechanism for system implementation. We must resolutely investigate and deal with acts of slacking, making choices and discounting in the process of system implementation, and seriously pursue the responsibility, so as to put an end to chaos, abuse, inaction and slowness, and ensure that the system is implemented in place.
Strengthen supervision over the implementation of the system. After the establishment of the system, cadres are the decisive factor. Whether the Socialism with Chinese characteristics system can be strictly implemented and whether the institutional advantages can be transformed into governance efficiency depends on cadres. The key to strengthening the supervision of system implementation is to strengthen the supervision of cadres and improve the quality and efficiency of system implementation. It is necessary to urge the broad masses of cadres to strengthen the responsibility of system implementation, improve the system consciousness, and actively contribute wisdom and strength to the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity. It is necessary to urge the broad masses of cadres to perform their duties, exercise their powers and carry out their work in strict accordance with the system, improve the system’s execution and governance capabilities, and actively contribute to the overall layout of the "five in one" and the coordinated promotion of the "four comprehensive" strategic layout. It is necessary to urge the broad masses of cadres to carry out the system to the letter, set an example for the broad masses, creatively implement the system, and promote the continuous self-improvement and development of Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s system to maintain its vitality forever.
(Author: Peng Zhengde, Liu Zelan, both special researchers of Hunan Normal University Base, Socialism with Chinese characteristics Theoretical System Research Center, Hunan Province)
Reporting/feedback

The United States has been "accused by thousands of people" again! It is rare for many countries in the Middle East to unify their positions.

       CCTV News:On the 14th, despite the opposition of the international community, the United States moved its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and held an opening ceremony in Jerusalem.

       The move of the United States to the museum triggered large-scale protests and demonstrations by the Palestinian people, and clashed with Israeli soldiers in many places in the Palestinian-Israeli region. According to Palestinian Ministry of Health officials, at least 59 Palestinians have been killed and more than 2,800 injured in the conflict, which is the largest number of Palestinian deaths in a single day since the Gaza War in 2014.

one

Image source network

Image source network

       On 14th, the US Embassy in Israel held an opening ceremony in Jerusalem. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US Deputy Secretary of State Sullivan, Finance Minister Mnuchin, Trump’s daughter-in-law and others attended the opening ceremony. Earlier, Israel invited all 86 countries with diplomatic missions in Israel to attend the opening ceremony, but in the end only 33 countries confirmed their attendance.

       At the same time as the opening ceremony, a large number of Palestinians and Arab Israelis gathered outside the US Embassy to strongly protest against the opening of the US Embassy in Israel in Jerusalem and physical clashes with Israeli military and police. A large number of police surrounded the protesters, and some protesters were arrested by the police.

       Ahmed, an Arab Israeli Knesset member, said: "We clearly say that Jerusalem is the capital of Palestine and Israel should end its occupation of Jerusalem. The United States should not support Israel, and its approach is right ‘ The two-state plan ’ A fatal blow. "

       Not only in Jerusalem, but also in many places in the Palestinian-Israeli region. Among them, the conflict between Gaza Strip and Israel is the most serious, with tens of thousands of Palestinians and Israeli soldiers having fierce clashes. Some demonstrators burned tires and threw stones at Israel. Israeli soldiers stationed at the border fired back and dispatched drones to throw tear gas at the protesters.

       The Israeli military then stated that "the Israeli-Palestinian border was not damaged and infiltrated by Palestinians that day", and the Israeli military accused Hamas of planning the Palestinian "infiltration" action against Israel. In response, the Israeli military also attacked the Hamas target in the northern part of Gaza that day.

       The United Nations is concerned about the relocation of the US Museum and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

       On 14th, the United Nations expressed serious concern about the move of the American Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which triggered a large-scale conflict between Palestine and Israel. In addition, Russia, France, Britain and other aspects also expressed their opposition to the behavior of the United States.

       Guterres also issued a statement through his spokesman on the same day, calling on Israeli security forces to exercise maximum restraint when using force, especially lethal weapons. He also called on Hamas and the leaders of protests and demonstrations to prevent all acts of violence and provocation. Guterres said that the status of Jerusalem must be resolved through consultations between relevant parties.

       On the same day, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Russia believes that the move of the US embassy to Jerusalem is negative, and the Palestinian-Israeli issue can only be resolved through direct dialogue between Palestine and Israel.

one

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov

       In addition, French Foreign Minister Le Drian issued a communique on the 14th, saying that France opposed the move of the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, which ran counter to the relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly. Le Drian called on all parties to shoulder their responsibilities and seek a political solution to the Palestinian-Israeli issue in the face of intensified conflicts and regional tensions.

       British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson also said that the United States played the wrong card at the wrong time when it moved its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Britain opposes this practice of the United States.

       Turkey will recall its ambassadors to Washington and Tel Aviv

       Turkey announced on the 14th that it would recall its ambassadors to Washington and Tel Aviv in order to protest that the United States moved its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem despite the opposition of the international community and caused the death of nearly 60 Palestinians. In addition, the Turkish government also announced a three-day mourning for the Palestinians killed in the recent conflict from the 15th.

       On the same day, Turkish President Erdogan said in London that the violence committed by Israeli military police against Palestinians that day was a "massacre". Erdogan said that Turkey will not sit idly by and watch this massacre.

one

Turkish President Erdogan

       Middle East countries accuse the United States of undermining the Palestinian-Israeli peace process.

       A stone stirs up a thousand waves — — On 14th, Lebanon, Iran, Jordan, Egypt and other countries in the Middle East expressed their opposition to the US move, and condemned the US move for undermining the Palestinian-Israeli peace process.

       Lebanese Foreign Minister basil said in Brussels on 14th that the official relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem will lead to more tension in the Middle East and may lead to more rampant extremist forces. Basil also admitted that the United States has broken its promise in the Middle East too many times, and today it has once again plunged the Middle East into crisis.

       In addition, the Iranian Foreign Minister said on social media that Israel killed Palestinians while the United States was celebrating the illegal embassy, which was shameful.

       Jordanian government spokesman Mumani issued a statement saying that this act of the United States is a violation of the UN Charter and relevant UN Security Council resolutions. Jordan considers this action invalid and illegal.

       Egypt’s Foreign Ministry warned that the dangerous escalation would have negative effects, and Egypt opposed Israel’s use of force against peaceful demonstrators fighting for legitimate rights.

       Secretary-General of the League of Arab States Gheit also issued a statement saying that this move by the United States is very dangerous. He urged the international community, in accordance with international law, to avoid actions that hurt the Palestinian people and endanger the chances of a peaceful settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

[Beijing News] In the first half of the year, 39.143 million people were affected by natural disasters in China, and it is still a critical period for flood control.

  On the morning of July 21st, the Emergency Management Department held a press conference to report the natural disasters and the situation of safe production in the first half of the year. According to reports, in the first half of 2022, natural disasters in China were mainly floods, winds and geological disasters, and various natural disasters caused a total of 39.143 million people to be affected; In addition, in the first half of the year, the problem of illegal construction in the field of housing construction was prominent, and underground construction operations and gas explosion accidents occurred frequently.
  At the same time, in response to the National Comprehensive Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Plan (hereinafter referred to as the Plan) recently issued by the National Disaster Reduction Committee, the relevant person in charge answered the questions of the Beijing News reporter. In view of the shortcomings in the field of disaster prevention and mitigation in some cities in China, the Plan highlights emergency preparedness, disaster avoidance and other aspects, establishes and improves the linkage mechanism between meteorological disaster early warning and emergency response, such as "calling the responsible person", and takes measures such as stopping work and stopping school when necessary to avoid mass deaths and injuries. 
  The regional characteristics of disasters are obvious, and the disaster situation in the south is more serious than that in the north.
  Shen Zhanli, spokesperson of the emergency management department and director of the news and publicity department, said that in the first half of 2022, floods, wind and hail and geological disasters were the main natural disasters in China, with 39.143 million people affected by various natural disasters, 178 people were killed and missing due to disasters, 1.282 million people were relocated urgently, 18,000 houses collapsed, and the affected area of crops was 36.189 million hectares, resulting in a direct economic loss of 88.81 billion yuan.
  Shen Zhanli introduced that in the first half of the year, the regional characteristics of disasters in China were obvious. From January to April, the national disaster situation was relatively stable, and floods were more serious in May and June. On the whole, the disasters in the south were more serious than those in the north. The rainfall in the whole country is higher than that in the same period of normal years, with many rivers exceeding the police, heavy flood in the Pearl River basin, and geological disasters such as urban and rural waterlogging and mountain torrents in many places in the south, which have caused great losses to agriculture, industry, mining, commerce and infrastructure.
  In addition, there were 19 strong convective weather processes in China, which was less than the average of the same period in the past five years. There were many wind and hail disasters, and local lightning strikes caused casualties. Staged droughts have occurred in South China, North China and Northwest China, which have affected local agricultural production.
  The problem of illegal construction in the field of housing construction is prominent, and gas explosion accidents occur frequently.
  Shen Zhanli introduced that in the first half of the year, there were 11,076 production safety accidents and 8,870 deaths, and the situation of production safety was generally stable, showing the characteristics of "three declines", that is, the total number of production safety accidents, major accidents and major accidents decreased year-on-year. However, accidents occur frequently in some regions and industries, and the situation of safe production is still severe and complicated.
  "Geographically, the number of major accidents and deaths in Xinjiang, Xizang, Chongqing, Gansu, Qinghai and Liaoning increased’ double’ year-on-year, and serious accidents occurred in Guizhou, Liaoning and Hunan." Shen Zhanli said.
  From the perspective of industry, the problem of illegal construction in the field of residential construction was prominent in the first half of the year. The "1.3" major landslide accident occurred in the project site of Jinhaihu New District of the First People’s Hospital of Bijie City, Guizhou Province, and the "4.29" particularly serious collapse accident of residents’ self-built houses in Wangcheng District of Changsha City, Hunan Province. Underground construction and gas explosion accidents occurred frequently. Accidents in the mining field have decreased, but the problem of illegal mining is prominent, especially the "2.25" major roof accident in Sanhe Shunxun Coal Mine, Southwest Guizhou Province, which killed 14 people, and the "3.2" gas overrun accident in Limin Coal Mine, qingzhen city, Guiyang City, which killed 8 people and injured 13 people. The impact is extremely bad.
  In addition, accidents of chemical and dangerous chemicals have increased, industrial transfer projects and old devices have repeatedly occurred, and some chemical enterprises have violated laws and regulations in production and operation, and safety risks in hot work and inspection and maintenance are prominent. There are many accidents in the transportation industry, and the safety risks of civil aviation railways, water transportation and fishing vessels are prominent. There are many major accidents involving more than 10 people in road transportation. Some industrial and trade enterprises have frequent fire accidents, and the risk of "small fire killing people" in small business places is greater.
  The critical period of "Seven Downs and Eight Ups" flood control is complicated and severe, and the north enters the main rainy season.
  At present, it is the critical period of flood control. Zhang Jiatuan, Emergency Command Commissioner of the Emergency Management Department, said that "seven downs and eight ups" generally refers to the time from the second half of July to the first half of August every year.
  "During this period, the western Pacific subtropical high will often be lifted to the highest position, and the north of China will enter the main rainy season, and the south, such as South China and the southeast coast, may enter the typhoon active period. During this period, a wide range of heavy rainfall processes often occur, causing serious floods. Especially in the northern region, this problem is particularly prominent, such as the "July 20" torrential rain disaster in Zhengzhou last year and the torrential rain disaster in Xingtai, Hebei Province in 2016. Therefore, this period is the most prominent stage of flood disaster risk in China. " Zhang Jiatuan said.
  According to the forecast, during the "Seven Downs and Eight Ups" this year, the main rain area in China is in the north, and serious floods may occur in Songhua River, Huaihe River and other basins, and local floods may occur in Haihe River, including the lower reaches of Liaohe River and Yellow River, and in the west of Pearl River Basin. In addition, there is less precipitation in Jiangnan, South China and parts of northwest China, and summer drought may occur in some places in East China and Central China. There may be 1-2 landing typhoons, and the path is mainly westbound. Generally speaking, the situation of flood control and drought relief this year is more complicated and severe.
  Zhang Jiatuan introduced that the National Defense General Office and the Emergency Management Department further urged all localities to implement the main responsibilities of the flood control and disaster relief party committees and governments, and compacted the responsibilities to the end of the grassroots. In particular, we will urge the responsible persons at all levels to go deep into the front line and command from the front, and organize hidden dangers investigation, emergency rescue, mass transfer, disaster relief and other work. We will implement the "call-to-answer" mechanism for immediate disasters, strengthen the linkage between early warning and emergency response, and move forward the threshold for emergency response.
  At the same time, attach great importance to the possible "summer drought", timely judge the drought risk, refine the drought relief plan, and urge all localities to strengthen water resources management and scientific allocation. The difficulty of drinking water in dry areas should be investigated door by door, and the drought-resistant team equipment should be implemented in advance to ensure the safety of drinking water.
  The accuracy of rainstorm forecast and early warning during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period reached 90%
  At the press conference, the relevant person in charge interpreted the contents of the National Comprehensive Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Plan issued by the National Disaster Reduction Committee recently.
  Chen Sheng, Director of the Monitoring and Disaster Reduction Department of the Emergency Management Department, introduced that the overall goal of the Plan anchors the 14th Five-Year Plan for China’s national economic and social development and the outline of the long-term goal in 2035. From the first stage to 2025, a natural disaster prevention and control system with overall planning and high efficiency, clear responsibilities, combination of prevention and control, social participation and coordination with high-quality economic and social development will be basically established; In the second stage, we will strive to basically modernize the natural disaster prevention and control system and prevention and control capacity by 2035, and the prevention and response to major disasters will be more powerful, orderly and effective.
  The Plan requires that the national comprehensive risk database of natural disasters be built, and a comprehensive risk map and a prevention and control zoning map be compiled. The public coverage rate of early warning information will reach 90%, and the annual death rate due to disasters per million people will be controlled within 1, and the average number of people affected by disasters per 100,000 people will be less than 15,000, so as to minimize disaster risks.
  "The" Planning "requires that a central disaster relief material reserve be added around efficient disaster relief, and the linkage between early warning and emergency response should be strengthened, so that the basic livelihood of the affected people can be effectively rescued within 10 hours of the disaster. In addition, popular science education on disaster prevention and mitigation is widely carried out, and there is at least one disaster information officer in every village (community) in urban and rural areas across the country. " Chen Sheng said.
  Deng Shizhong, deputy director of the Emergency Disaster Reduction and Public Service Department of China Meteorological Bureau, said that China is one of the countries with the most serious meteorological disasters in the world, and meteorological and derivative disasters account for more than 70% of natural disasters. Meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation is the focus of natural disaster prevention.
  During the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the meteorological department will basically build an intelligent forecasting system with seamless and full coverage. The accuracy of rainstorm forecasting and early warning will reach 90%, and the early warning time of severe convective weather will exceed 45 minutes. Strengthen the construction of the national emergency early warning information release system, realize that the early warning information reaches the responsible persons of disaster prevention and mitigation at all levels within 5 minutes, and the public coverage rate of early warning information reaches over 90%.
  The emergency management department replied to the Beijing News: The Plan highlights disaster avoidance and takes measures such as suspension of work and school when necessary.
  At the meeting, a reporter from the Beijing News asked what special arrangements and arrangements had been made for the "Planning" in view of the shortcomings exposed in the response to major natural disasters such as the "July 20" torrential rain disaster in Zhengzhou, Henan Province.
  Chen Sheng introduced that in recent years, extreme weather disasters have occurred frequently in China. In the practice of preventing and responding to major natural disasters, there are many shortcomings and deficiencies in the field of disaster prevention and mitigation in some cities in China.
  To this end, the "Planning" proposes to highlight emergency preparedness and strengthen the capacity building for disaster prevention and response. We will revise and improve emergency plans in extreme cases such as road disconnection, power outage and network disconnection, and strengthen all-round preparations such as presetting key rescue forces, dispatching materials and equipment, and post-disaster rescue and recovery. Highlight risk zoning and strengthen the source control of various disasters. Incorporate safety and resilience, disaster risk assessment, etc. into the requirements of national spatial planning, compile and revise disaster risk maps and comprehensive prevention and control zoning maps, scientifically delineate disaster risk areas and control lines, and promote the rational planning and construction layout of urban and rural infrastructure and public service facilities.
  At the same time, infrastructure construction should be highlighted to improve the level of natural disaster prevention. In combination with strengthening infrastructure construction and implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand, nine disaster prevention and mitigation projects with strong foundation, increased functions and long-term benefits will be deployed in three aspects: monitoring and early warning, emergency rescue and comprehensive support. Highlight disaster avoidance and strengthen the linkage between early warning and response. Formulate standards and norms such as disaster monitoring, forecasting and early warning, establish and improve the linkage mechanism between meteorological disaster early warning and emergency response such as "calling for response" by responsible persons, strengthen the implementation of social control measures, and take rigid measures such as suspension of work, suspension of school, suspension of business, suspension of service, suspension of assembly and traffic control when necessary to avoid mass deaths and injuries.
  In addition, publicity and guidance should be highlighted to create a good atmosphere for the whole society to participate in disaster prevention and mitigation. Work hard on the construction of popular science education system for disaster prevention and mitigation, cultivate a group of national and provincial backbone propaganda forces for disaster prevention and mitigation, develop a group of case bases for major disasters, create a number of online and offline training courses, and build a number of research and exchange bases for disaster prevention and mitigation, so as to increase the interpretation and warning education of typical cases and improve the risk awareness and emergency response ability of cadres and the masses.
  (Beijing News reporter Zhan Shengjie intern Chen Yuxi)

The development plan of the Yangtze River Economic Belt was released to form a strategic support belt leading the country.

  Recently, the Outline of the Development Plan of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning Outline") was officially issued. So far, the top-level designs of the three national strategies ("Belt and Road", coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the Yangtze River Economic Belt) have all been released.

  What is the development orientation of the Yangtze River Economic Belt? What is the strategic significance for China’s economic development? This newspaper interviewed many experts to interpret this programmatic document.

  Ecological priority is the most important breakthrough.

  The person in charge of the office of the leading group for promoting the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt said that the basic idea of the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is ecological priority and green development, rather than encouraging a new round of large-scale development. This is the most important requirement of the strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the starting point and foothold of planning.

  Liu Yanping, an associate researcher in national academy of economic strategy, said that ecological priority is one of the most important breakthroughs in the Planning Outline. "In the past, the planning focused more on economic development, but this" Planning Outline "is a collection of ‘ Five development concepts ’ In one. "

  Wu Xiaohua, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that putting the restoration of the ecological environment of the Yangtze River in an overwhelming position can force the Yangtze River Economic Belt to accelerate the transformation of its economic development mode and take the lead in embarking on a green, low-carbon and circular development path.

  Focusing on the requirements of ecological priority, the Planning Outline puts forward four strategic orientations of the Yangtze River Economic Belt: the pioneering demonstration belt of ecological civilization construction, the innovation-driven belt leading the national transformation and development, the inland river economic belt with global influence, and the coordinated development belt of interaction and cooperation between East and West.

  It is understood that the Yangtze River Economic Belt covers 11 provinces and cities such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou, covering an area of about 2.05 million square kilometers, accounting for 21% of the country, and its population and economic aggregate both exceed 40% of the country. It has an important ecological position, strong comprehensive strength and great development potential.

  Form a strategic support belt that leads the country.

  The person in charge of the Office of the Leading Group for Promoting the Development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt said that promoting the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt has great practical significance and far-reaching historical significance.

  In Liu Yanping’s view, the Yangtze River Economic Belt is the "Long Mai" of China’s economy, which is of great significance to the linkage of China’s economy from east to west and from north to south, and the two-way opening by sea and land. Moreover, the Yangtze River Economic Belt can radiate to Europe, West Asia and other places, and it also has important international significance.

  Zhang Xiaode, deputy director of the Economic Department of the National School of Administration, said in an interview with this newspaper that the Yangtze River Economic Belt has always played a leading role in China’s economic development. It can be said that an important issue in the Planning Outline is how to make the Yangtze River Economic Belt continue to act as a "locomotive" under the background of China’s economic transformation and upgrading.

  According to the person in charge of the Office of the Leading Group for Promoting the Development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, one of the goals of the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is to form a strategic support belt that leads the national economic and social development.

  In addition to the economic significance, Liu Yanping believes that promoting the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt also bears the imprint of the revival of Chinese culture. The Yangtze River is the mother river of the Chinese nation and a zone rich in Chinese culture. The rise of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is representative of the rejuvenation of China.

  Building a new pattern of land and sea planning and opening up

  The person in charge of the Office of the Leading Group for Promoting the Development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt said that promoting the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is conducive to building a new corridor for land and sea two-way opening up and cultivating new advantages in international economic cooperation and competition. Then, how to build a new pattern of opening up in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, which is two-way from east to west and coordinated by land and sea?

  The person in charge said that the first is to play a leading role in Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta. Accelerate the replication and promotion of the reform and innovation experience of the Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone, and make the Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone a pioneering area for service trade innovation policies. Encourage Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta region to focus on developing high-end industries, high value-added links and headquarters economy, accelerate the cultivation of new competitive advantages centered on technology, brand, quality and service, and take the lead in creating an upgraded version of the open economy. Promote the Yangtze River Delta and the middle and upper reaches to jointly build a chain of shipping, processing trade and financial cooperation. Take the lead in building a rule system that will lead the development of cross-border electronic commerce and international trade.

  The second is to build Yunnan into a radiation center facing South Asia and Southeast Asia. Accelerate the interconnection with surrounding infrastructure and facilitate cross-border transportation. With Kunming as the center, we will build an import and export distribution network for South Asia and Southeast Asia to promote the development of processing trade, bonded logistics and cross-border electronic commerce. Accelerate the development of the experimental zone for comprehensive financial reform along the border in Yunnan and promote the construction of relevant key development and opening-up experimental zones.

  The third is to speed up the construction of inland open economic highland. Promote regional interactive cooperation and industrial agglomeration development, and build an important support for the development and opening up of western Chongqing and inland open economic highlands such as Chengdu, Wuhan, Changsha, Nanchang and Hefei. We will improve the fulcrum layout of the ports in the middle and upper reaches, support the reasonable establishment of inspection sites that directly handle the entry and exit procedures of goods at major stations along the international railway cargo transportation and important inland ports, and support inland air ports to open more international passenger and cargo routes and flights.

What is the impact of the biggest interest rate cut in history on the property market, stock market and bond market?

(Image from Hailuo)

On February 20th, the quoted market interest rate (LPR) of 5-year loans was lowered by 25 basis points, and it was lowered again after 8 months, and the range was the largest ever, exceeding market expectations.

Recently, the liquidity is still abundant, and the interest rate of five years and above has been greatly lowered, which will help to further promote the recovery of the real estate industry, and also boost the stock market and bond market in the later period. The industry believes that the record downward adjustment has released a strong signal of stabilizing the property market, stabilizing growth and preventing risks.

// LPR welcomes the biggest decline in history//

On February 20th, February LPR quotation was released: the one-year LPR was 3.45%, compared with 3.45% last time; The LPR for more than five years was lowered by 25 basis points to 3.95%, and the single reduction rate reached a new high since the LPR reform, and the last one was 4.2%.

Judging from the trend of LPR in recent years, Wind data shows that the one-year period has been lowered four times in the past two years, and the rhythm of adjustment is maintained twice a year. Specifically, on January 20, 2022, it was lowered by 10BP to 3.70% from the last 3.80%, and it was lowered to 3.65% again in August, and remained unchanged for nine consecutive months from September to May 2023. In 2023, it was lowered by 10BP in June, and the quotation was 3.55%. In August, it was lowered to 3.45% separately.

In the past two years, the five-year period and above have been lowered five times, and the rhythm and one-year period are also different. Among them, it was lowered by 5BP to 4.6% on January 20, 2022, and it was lowered by 15BP to 4.45% again on May 20, and lowered by 15BP to 4.3% again in August. It has also remained unchanged for nine consecutive months. In June 2023, it was lowered by 10BP to 4.2%. In February, 2024, it was significantly reduced by 25BP to 3.95% again, which was the largest in recent years.

//The property market has been boosted//

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, pointed out that the LPR over five years has been lowered by 25 basis points, which is also the largest reduction in history. Especially in the current situation of insufficient effective demand and weak expectations, it will help boost the confidence of market participants, effectively reduce the comprehensive financing cost of society and further expand the total demand.

Yan Yuejin, research director of Yiju Research Institute, believes that the real estate market in China is currently in the stage of stabilization and recovery, but the recovery process needs to be consolidated. Interest rate cuts are good for lowering the cost of capital and directly guiding the downward trend of mortgage interest rates. This interest rate cut is a relatively large one, which helps to promote mortgage application and consumption.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that the LPR for five years or more has been reduced from 4.2% to 3.95%. If the additional factors are not considered, taking the total loan of 1 million yuan (RMB, the same below) and the 30-year equal principal and interest as an example, the monthly mortgage payment will be reduced by about 145 yuan, and the overall interest expenditure for 30 years will be reduced by more than 50,000 yuan.

According to the calculation of China Fund, if the loan is 1 million yuan, the fixed number of years is 30 years, and the principal and interest are equal, without considering the additional points, the downward adjustment of LPR for more than five years will save the interest of buyers by more than 50,000 yuan, and the monthly payment will save 1.44.8 yuan; Average capital saved nearly 38,000 yuan in interest.

(Repayment required before downward adjustment)

(Repayment required after downward adjustment)

Lian Ping, dean of the Chief Industry Research Institute of Guangkai, said that for the real estate market, lowering the mid-and long-term LPR benchmark interest rate will help reduce the repayment pressure of residents buying real estate and existing mortgages. As the current recovery of commercial housing sales is less than expected, the recovery of market confidence needs more policy support and patience. Based on the downward adjustment of the 5-year LPR benchmark interest rate, the mortgage interest rate of subsequent commercial banks will also respond to the downward adjustment.

//What is the impact on banking stocks? //

Many professionals believe that this asymmetric interest rate cut is generally good for the stock market. The impact of the 5-year LPR downgrade on bank spreads is expected to be generally controllable.

The soochow securities Report pointed out that there is no need to worry too much about the impact of the asymmetric reduction of LPR on bank spreads. Historically, since September 2019, there have been RRR cuts before and after the four LPR downgrades, which have buffered the bank’s costs; On the other hand, in 2023, the decline of LPR was less than that of MLF, and the banking industry made several moves to reduce the deposit interest rate, which also reserved the bank interest margin space for the separate reduction of LPR.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, pointed out that the decline of LPR over five years mainly affects medium and long-term loans. Considering the downward adjustment of deposit interest rate, the impact on the bank’s net interest margin is expected to be generally controllable.

On February 20th, the intraday trading prices of A-share banks such as Agricultural Bank and Bank of China hit a new record high.

As of the close of February 20th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42% to close at 2922.73 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.04% to close at 8905.96 points; Growth enterprise market index fell 0.01% to close at 1746.18 points, with a total turnover of 798.5 billion yuan.

On February 20th, Wandequan A rose slightly by 0.44%, with a turnover of 798.5 billion yuan, a sharp decrease from the previous trading day. Judging from the market trend, the shock went high after the opening of the day, and the closing price continued to rise, with the bottom 5 consecutive years. The turnover of the day was significantly smaller than that of the previous days, and the market rose greatly in the short term. After the continuous rebound, both long and short sides were more cautious.

//Will the bond market take profit rebound? //

On February 20th (Tuesday), the five-year LPR cut interest rates more than expected, and the yield of spot bonds in the inter-bank market fell by more than 2 basis points in the afternoon, and the bullish sentiment rose again. As of press time, the yield of 5-year active bonds "23 Treasury bonds with interest 22" dropped by 3.35bp, and the yield of 10-year active bonds "23 Treasury bonds with interest 26" dropped by 2.4bp. Treasury futures closed up collectively, with 30-year main contracts up 0.24% and 10-year main contracts up 0.07%.

The research report from CITIC Securities pointed out that the bond market was mixed before and after LPR adjustment, and the yield of 30-year government bonds changed more smoothly than that of 10-year government bonds. In terms of horizontal comparison, before 2023, the interest rate of the bond market will even rise on the day when LPR is lowered; However, after the LPR has been lowered several times recently, the bond market yield tends to decline, and the adjustment range has narrowed.

It is worth noting that the strong correlation between LPR and MLF in the past means that the probability of co-frequency resonance is high, but the recent adjustments have shown weak correlation. This means that if MLF continues to work, the impact on the lending rate of actual financial products will be limited, but we still need to see that the capital market has been cautious about the downward adjustment of LPR over five years.

Huaan Securities’ recent research report pointed out that although the bond market is competing with each other in the short term, if the LPR interest rate is lowered recently, the take-profit sentiment may further rise.

//Release the signal of steady growth//

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and dean of the research institute of Yuekai Securities, said that the asymmetric interest rate reduction method with one-year LPR unchanged and five-year LPR lowered, as well as the timing of interest rate reduction in February, will help protect the net interest margin of commercial banks and coordinate financial support for the real economy and prevent risks; The downward adjustment of LPR released a positive signal of steady growth, which helped boost market confidence and expectations.

According to Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, the 1-year LPR has not been adjusted following MLF, and the reasons for the 5-year separate downward adjustment include: on the one hand, historically, the 5-year adjustment range is small, and there is a need for supplementary downward adjustment; On the other hand, since the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the central bank has achieved and met the conditions for adjusting the long-term LPR by lowering the deposit interest rate and lowering the RRR.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that the price difference between LPR over five years and LPR over one year is still large, and there is more room for downward adjustment of LPR over five years. At the same time, this asymmetric downward adjustment will help domestic monetary policy to give priority to ourselves and give consideration to internal and external balance.

Original title: "The biggest interest rate cut in history", what impact does it have on the property market, stock market and bond market? 》

Read the original text

Zhou Xuewen, a master of traditional Chinese medicine: Nursing needs to be properly administered.

  Professor Zhou Xuewen, a master of traditional Chinese medicine, has been practicing medicine for more than 50 years. He has a profound understanding of classics and is good at treating digestive tract ulcer, gastritis with bile reflux, dyslipidemia and atherosclerosis, functional dyspepsia, erosive gastritis, reflux esophagitis, ulcerative colitis, functional constipation, cholecystitis, chronic liver injury, chronic pharyngitis and other intractable diseases.

  Zhou Xuewen believes that although excessive gastric acid secretion, Helicobacter pylori infection and weakened protective effect of gastric mucosa are the main factors causing gastric ulcer, drug abuse in life, delayed gastric emptying, bile reflux, environment and spirit are all closely related to the occurrence of gastric ulcer.

  Patients with digestive system diseases should pay special attention to nursing methods.

  Zhou Xuewen believes that the digestive system of human body goes in and out all day long, and it will be damaged if it is not carefully guarded, so patients with digestive system diseases should pay attention to daily nursing. If properly nursed, it is conducive to the recovery of healthy qi and the removal of pathogenic factors; Improper nursing care will not only delay the recovery time, but also make the illness recur and new symptoms appear.

  For the daily care of patients with digestive system diseases, Zhou Xuewen suggested that the daily life should conform to the four seasons, and the indoor and outdoor environment should be quiet and refreshing; Combination of work and rest, not one-sided emphasis on rest or activities. Patients with digestive system diseases should rest mainly in emergency, severe or attack period, such as ulcer attack period, acute pancreatitis or cholecystitis, and stay in bed if necessary; Patients with chronic diseases or convalescence, such as chronic liver disease and ulcer disease, should have a certain amount of activity to promote the operation of qi and blood and enhance the body’s ability to defend against diseases and pathogens. However, it should be noted that the activity should be gradually increased, so as not to be too hasty, so as not to aggravate the condition, because digestive system diseases will often recur due to overwork.

  Examples of damage to the spleen and stomach due to overeating are not uncommon, so the diet should be moderate, not too hungry and full, and it is advisable to eat less meals, eat regularly and not eat snacks. Zhou Xuewen warned that eating spicy or overheated food will make the stomach hot and cause dry stool or bleeding; Eating cold food in large quantities or for a long time will inhibit spleen yang, and endogenous cold will lead to stomach pain, abdominal pain and diarrhea. Drinking a lot is prone to liver disease.

  Clinically, Zhou Xuewen adheres to the idea that spleen and stomach drugs should be light and sensitive, and does not need particularly harsh drugs. "Once the stomach qi is collected, it is difficult to apply all kinds of medicine". Some elderly people have weak spleen and stomach. Zhou Xuewen tends to use Rhizoma picrorhizae instead of Rhizoma Coptidis to reduce the cold and cold qi, and reminds them to always take care of the spleen and stomach. Only by protecting the stomach qi can the medicine have a good effect.

  An optimistic and positive mental state is conducive to rehabilitation.

  Severe emotional changes will affect the normal function of the human body. Long-term mental stress and anxiety are often important causes of ulcer. Patients with gastrointestinal diseases such as peptic ulcer and chronic colitis often have symptoms such as inability to eat, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, constipation, etc., or need to undergo numerous tests, or suffer from psychological fluctuations such as anxiety and emotional instability due to repeated illness, and even vomit blood in severe cases.

  For these patients with heavy psychological burden, Zhou Xuewen will be very patient to enlighten them and relieve their excessive mental stress. Zhou Xuewen once met a patient with chronic atrophic gastritis, and her psychological burden was particularly heavy. Therefore, Zhou Xuewen specially squeezed out the time for diagnosis and treatment and gave her psychological counseling. During the follow-up visit, the patient’s mood was obviously much better. After stopping the drug for half a year, I checked again and found that atrophic gastritis was obviously improved when I did gastroscopy.

  Zhou Xuewen said that patients with digestive system diseases should learn to enlighten themselves, relieve their worries and put down their ideological burdens, which is an important factor for their early recovery.

  Traditional Chinese medicine also has toxic side effects, so don’t take medicine indiscriminately.

  Zhou Xuewen has rich experience in the pharmacological research of modern Chinese medicine. He usually pays special attention to the active ingredients and side effects of drugs, and often warns students: "Learn more about Chinese medicine, because Chinese medicine also has toxic and side effects. At the same time of syndrome differentiation and treatment, we must grasp the degree of medication, not excessive application, and medication safety is the most important. "

  Every time he meets Chinese medicines that are "sought after" by ordinary people, Zhou Xuewen will take pains to tell his disciples the precautions of these "health care drugs". For example, it is popular among the elderly to eat panax pseudo-ginseng every day. Zhou Xuewen believes that if the heart of the elderly is not good, excessive dosage of panax pseudo-ginseng will cause tachycardia, and long-term excessive dosage will easily cause liver cell damage. For patients with gastrointestinal bleeding, Zhou Xuewen sometimes uses panax pseudo-ginseng for protection, but the dosage is strictly controlled, and some other drugs are added to protect gastric mucosa.

  In 2000, at the age of 63, Zhou Xuewen summarized and compiled an internal handout "Introduction to Clinical Pharmacology of Traditional Chinese Medicine" for the teaching of doctoral students in the Affiliated Hospital of Liaoning University of Traditional Chinese Medicine. In the lecture notes, the toxicity of traditional Chinese medicine was explained in a very long space.

  Zhou Xuewen believes that traditional Chinese medicine can also be divided into small toxicity, big toxicity and highly toxic drugs, which can produce adverse reactions for some reasons. In addition, in recent years, Chinese herbal medicines have been widely explored and used in various places, and many new products and new uses have emerged, which may increase the occurrence of adverse reactions of traditional Chinese medicine.

  At present, there are many traditional Chinese medicines with the same source of medicine and food used for dietotherapy. Zhou Xuewen gave some suggestions on the reasonable collocation of dietotherapy for patients with digestive system diseases. If the spleen and stomach are cold, ginger and pepper should be eaten; People with stomach heat can eat some cool fruits in moderation; Those with hyperacidity: eat some alkaline pasta; Those with gastric acid deficiency can drink vinegar or eat hawthorn slices in moderation after meals; For diarrhea patients, whole liquid, semi-liquid or soft rice is appropriate, and cold and lubricated foods such as chrysanthemum, eggplant and cold fruits are avoided; Patients with hepatobiliary diseases should eat light vegetables and nutritious lean meat, chicken and fish, avoid spicy tobacco and alcohol stimulants and eat less animal fat.

  "Doctors can’t cure all diseases"

  Zhou Xuewen said that Zhang Zhongjing, a medical sage, saw an incurable disease and wrote it in Treatise on Febrile Diseases. This shows that doctors can’t cure all diseases. But now many doctors are not like this. They can cure everything. It’s terrible.

  "Some ordinary people, seeing what others eat today, follow them and never consider whether their physical condition is suitable." Zhou Xuewen said, "One of my teachers said that diet is individualized. I quite agree with this teacher’s point of view. "

  Zhou Xuewen health tips:

  Fever: 10 grams of cogongrass rhizome and gypsum, 1 cup of decoction, twice a day.

  Gum bleeding, oral ulcer: 10g of bletilla striata powder and 3g of panax pseudo-ginseng are ground into flour and applied to the affected area, and 3g of panax pseudo-ginseng flour is taken twice a day.

  Wet weight: drink coix seed water. In summer, especially in the rainy days, the humidity is heavy. First, fry the coix seed until it is brown, and then boil water to protect the stomach. (Zhang Xu)

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years or maintained a moderate and gradual pace.

Our reporter Tan Zhijuan reports from Beijing.

When many central banks around the world plan to start the interest rate cut cycle in 2024, the Bank of Japan announced a rate hike against the trend, which attracted the attention of the global market.

On March 19th, the Bank of Japan announced the adjustment of the monetary policy framework, decided to raise the short-term policy interest rate from -0.1% to 0-0.1%, and cancelled the yield curve control policy (YCC), and will guide the short-term interest rate as the main policy tool in the future.

The reporter of China Business News noted that this is the first time that the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates after 17 years since 2007, and it is also the first time that negative interest rates have ended since 2016.

In this regard, Liang Si, a researcher at China Bank Research Institute, said in an interview with China Business News on March 20, 2024: "The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike mainly stems from two aspects: First, prices continue to reach the target level. The important goal of the Bank of Japan to maintain ultra-low interest rates is that inflation can reach 2%; Second, the influence of labor negotiations in Japan in the spring. The results of labor negotiations show that the average wage growth demand of labor negotiations in Japan in spring exceeded 5% for the first time in 30 years. The simultaneous rise in prices and wages implies that the conditions for raising interest rates are ripe, so it is reasonable for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this time. "

In this regard, the Bank of Japan predicts that Japan’s economy will continue to grow at a rate exceeding the potential growth rate, and core CPI inflation is expected to gradually increase, moving towards achieving the price target. The Bank of Japan also predicts that the inflation rate will exceed 2% in FY 2024 by temporarily maintaining a loose monetary environment.

The pace of raising interest rates may remain moderate and gradual.

Regarding the reasons for the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike, Bai Xue, an analyst at Oriental Jincheng Research and Development Department, said: "The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike is mainly due to the significant rebound in Japan’s inflation rate since 2022, thus breaking the long-term dilemma of structural deflation-that is, Japan’s long-term implementation of negative interest rates."

Relevant data show that under the background of strong economic trend in Japan, Japan’s CPI in 2022 and 2023 was 2.5% and 3.2% respectively, and the latest published CPI in January 2024 was 2.2%, exceeding the central bank’s policy target of 2% for 22 consecutive months; In January, the core CPI was 3.5% year-on-year, exceeding 3% for 14 consecutive months. In addition, this year’s salary negotiation-"Spring Fight" has greatly exceeded expectations, and the salary increase in fiscal year 2024 will reach 5.28%, which is not only much higher than last year’s 3.8%, but also the biggest increase since 1991-which means that Japan’s inflation will continue to remain above the policy target this year.

Therefore, in Bai Xue’s view, the expected realization of inflation level is the main reason to support the Bank of Japan to make major adjustments to monetary policy and withdraw from the negative interest rate policy.

It is worth noting that, in the opinion of industry experts, the normalization of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy has little to do with the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations.

Bai Xue believes: "The Bank of Japan’s end of the negative interest rate policy is mainly based on policy considerations made by its own economy and inflation level, and is not related to the Fed’s expectation of interest rate cuts."

Zhaowei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, told reporters that the Bank of Japan’s withdrawal from YCC was due to the moderate recovery of Japan’s economy, and the first round of salary increase negotiations in the "Spring Fight" far exceeded expectations. Rengo, Japan’s largest trade union, announced the results of the first round of salary negotiations on March 15th: the total salary increased by 5.28%, exceeding 5% for the first time since 1991 (5.66%) and 3.8% last year. As a result, inflation and labor shortage are the main reasons for the sharp rise in wages.

Looking forward to the future, Bai Xue said: "In terms of follow-up policy trends, the Bank of Japan will remain cautious in the pace of interest rate hikes, considering that there is still some uncertainty about whether Japan’s high inflation momentum can continue."

Changjiang securities also said that the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy should be fully protected and the pace of interest rate increase should be moderate and gradual, as the economic situation inside and outside Japan is still highly uncertain.

The Bank of Japan is also cautious about raising interest rates again. On March 19th, Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan, said at a news conference that he did not think that the interest rate of deposits and loans would rise sharply in the future, and the pace of interest rate increase would be determined according to economic and price expectations. Judging from the current situation, a rapid rise in interest rates can be avoided.

The impact on the global market may be limited

After the announcement of the interest rate resolution, the Bank of Japan stated that it would continue to buy bonds, the yen weakened, and the dollar continued to rise against the yen, with an increase of 0.5%, approaching the 150 mark, and the bond and stock markets were moderate.

Regarding the phenomenon that the yen exchange rate does not rise but falls, Liang Si told reporters: "This is because, on the one hand, Japan’s interest rate hike has been expected, and the market has fully digested the bullish impact of this news; On the other hand, after the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, the spread between the United States and Japan is still large and will not bring obvious support to the yen. "

Some analysts also said that the yen exchange rate did not rise but fell because the market had fully expected the Bank of Japan to turn, and at the same time, as the Fed’s interest rate cut expectation weakened.

So, what impact does the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike have on the global market?

Liang Si told reporters: "The impact of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike on the global market may be limited. Because major economies such as Europe and the United States are likely to enter the interest rate cut cycle this year, the global liquidity environment will enter a relaxed pattern. In this context, the Bank of Japan continues to cut interest rates sharply, which may have an impact on foreign investment and foreign trade, so it is unlikely to raise interest rates sharply in the future. "

Bai Xue also believes that the Bank of Japan will end the negative interest rate policy, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates about three times this year, which means that the key driver of the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Japanese yen-the US-Japan spread will be significantly narrowed, which will promote the short-term appreciation of the Japanese yen and the pressure on the US dollar index.

Bai Xue also said that due to the important position of yen assets in the global capital market, the interest rate increase of yen will make international capital flow back to Japan from emerging markets and other developed countries. At the same time, as an important safe-haven currency, the appreciation of the yen may lead to a decrease in the pricing cost of bulk commodities, thus indirectly curbing the global inflation level.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, also said that, first of all, the interest rate hike announced by the Bank of Japan has also had a certain impact on the global capital market. Recently, the Japanese stock market has dropped at a high level, which is related to the market expectation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates.

However, zhaowei believes that looking back, fundamentals and funds may support Japanese stocks, and there is still room for valuation repair in some industries: on the one hand, the current allocation of overseas funds to Japanese stocks is not high; On the other hand, on the emotional side, the early rise of Japanese stocks is supported by profits. At present, the valuation of some industries is relatively reasonable, and there is still some upside space.

Secondly, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike may also delay the pace of the Fed’s interest rate cut, so that the date of the Fed’s monetary policy shift will be postponed.

Thirdly, the yen has experienced a sustained appreciation recently. Yang Delong believes: "If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates again, it will further promote the trend of the yen, which will inevitably weaken the competitiveness of Japanese export products."

However, Yang Delong pointed out that the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike has little impact on the A-share market.

(Editor: Hao Cheng Proofreading: Yan Jingning)

Reporting/feedback