Outlook for 2025： The international situation is turbulent and will enter the stage of rebalancing？
BEIJING, Jan. 1 (Reporter Zhang Aolin) With the ringing of the New Year bell, people all over the world are expecting the new year to bring hope and a turn for the better, and so is the international situation. Looking back on 2024, the Ukrainian crisis reached a deadlock, the Middle East became a mess, Trump won the US election, and Yin Xiyue was impeached because of martial law … These events undoubtedly had a far-reaching impact on the global political and economic structure.
In the face of the turbulent international situation, can chaos be stopped in 2025? Or add chaos to chaos? Zhongxin. com invited Cui Hongjian, director of the EU and Regional Development Research Center of Beijing Foreign Studies University, and Li Haidong, a professor at Foreign Affairs University, to make a forward-looking interpretation.
Data map: Ukrainian artillery units on the Russian-Ukrainian front.
Crossroads: Will Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks?
-Both sides are already tired.
At the beginning of the new year, the tension between Russia and Ukraine continued on the vast plains of Eastern Europe, and the Ukrainian crisis entered its third year.
For Russia and Ukraine, it seems that they have entered a period of fatigue.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in the "annual inventory" in 2024 that Russia has always been willing to negotiate. A few days later, Ukrainian President Zelensky made a Christmas speech, and also mentioned "wanting peace".
The two sides throw olive branches at each other, and the dawn of peace is close at hand?
Cui Hongjian believes that at present, there is a consensus among all parties in the Ukrainian crisis that the current situation is difficult to sustain, and it has shifted from fighting to seeking a political solution. This is a major change.
Although the Russian-Ukrainian front is still under constant fire, in the past year, neither side has made any substantial breakthrough on the front. In Cui Hongjian’s view, the two sides are close to the "ceiling" in the use of military means, and it is unlikely that there will be qualitative changes.
As for foreign media analysis that Russia may use nuclear weapons in a critical situation, Cui Hongjian believes that this will trigger a "qualitative change" in the Ukrainian crisis, but it is unlikely that Russia will do so. On the one hand, Russia has scruples, and on the other hand, the international community is under great pressure. At present, Russia mainly relies on hypersonic missiles to maintain its battlefield advantage.
-The first half of the year is crucial.
Cui Hongjian said that there are several key variables worthy of attention in the first half of 2025. First, after Trump takes office on January 20, the US policy toward Ukraine will be clear, which will affect the countermeasures of all parties.
During Trump’s campaign, he played the "Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire card" and repeatedly shouted that "the Ukrainian crisis will be resolved within 24 hours after taking office", and the whole world is waiting to see the results.
At the same time, major European countries such as France and Germany are also facing political changes in the first half of 2025. Due to the different positions and goals of Europe and the United States, Trump intends to adjust his foreign policy. He believes that long-term conflicts will consume American resources and make policies deviate from the core.
Cui Hongjian analyzed that although Europe is politically inclined to Biden’s government policy, if Trump lets the United States withdraw its support for Ukraine, it will become more and more difficult for Europe to continue to aid Ukraine, and whether it can follow the changes in US policy will become a key variable.
Data map: Trump.
Eye of the Storm: How chaotic will Trump be when he comes to power?
-tariff war
Threatening to "take back" the Panama Canal, "take over" Greenland, and implying that Canada and Mexico are included in the US territory … Trump has not officially taken office as the US president, but his series of remarks and policy intentions have caused an uproar around the world.
In Li Haidong’s view, Trump’s coming to power is likely to become a new trigger for global turmoil, and a storm covering many fields may sweep through, and the economic and trade fields may bear the brunt.
In November 2024, Trump suddenly announced that he would impose tariffs on Canadian, Mexican and China after he took office. Some American media analysts said that this might just be the prelude to Trump’s long-simmering "tariff war".
Li Haidong also gave a similar view: after Trump took office, the global trade pattern will be reshaped, and it will shift from the previous liberal or globalist trade agenda to a conservative trade agenda centered on the United States.
At the same time, Li Haidong pointed out that Trump can be expected to promote a grand tariff war plan for all countries in the world, so as to achieve a situation that "all countries in the world contribute to the United States at the economic level, instead of the United States contributing to other countries".
-"Internalization" policy
In his first term, Trump withdrew from the group at intervals and collected "protection fees" from his allies, which made the outside world worry that the foreign policy during the "Trump 2.0" period might be more isolationist.
"Geopolitical games and competitions are not Trump’s concern, and the relationship between big countries at the geopolitical level will enter a period of in-depth adjustment." Li Haidong said, "There is great uncertainty whether to make the relationship between big powers smoother or intensify confrontation, which is closely related to the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign behavior."
After Trump won the election, Japanese Prime Minister Shi Pomao quickly called to congratulate him, but the call lasted only five minutes, showing his alienation from Japan. Similarly, the meeting between Trump and Zelensky lacked enthusiasm and the interaction was cold.
Li Haidong pointed out that Trump’s administration is characterized by "introversion", which regards allies as a burden rather than an asset, thus leading to estrangement from allies. The United States may also oppress allies to make concessions, which makes allies stay away from him, aggravating global decentralization, eccentricity and uncertainty.
"Trump’s policies may lead to more chaos in the world and may also make the world more dangerous, so the world under Trump’s administration will be full of uncertainty." Li Haidong thinks.
Data Map: On October 27, 2024, Israel launched an air strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, and smoke billowed from the scene.
War clouds are gathering: the powder keg in the Middle East is out of control?
With five days left in 2024, the door to peace between Israel and Hamas was closed again, and both sides accused each other of sabotaging the negotiations.
This conflict, which has been delayed for nearly one year and three months, has a difficult road ahead. In 2024, more than 40,000 lives will be lost. "Now it seems that the conflict between Israel and Hamas is only a symptom of the deep-seated contradictions in the Middle East, not the root cause." Li Haidong analyzed.
Li Haidong pointed out that "Israel and Iran, Arab countries and Iran, and the United States and Iran, all these relations are highly antagonistic, which also means that the conflict between Israel and Hamas, even if it eases later, will never stop. Once the external environmental conditions are ripe, the conflict will inevitably happen again."
In 2024, the uncertainty in the Middle East was "visualized".
On the day when the ceasefire talks in Gaza broke down, a hypersonic ballistic missile launched by Houthi forces successfully hit Israeli military targets, and this missile happened to be a "Palestinian -2" type.
In addition to beating Hamas almost out of combat effectiveness, Israel conveniently "crippled" Hezbollah in Lebanon. After the sudden collapse of Bashar regime in Syria, the Israeli army launched air raids on the country and bombed several Syrian naval vessels, which made the already chaotic situation in the Middle East completely out of control.
Li Haidong analyzed that Israel’s strategic intention is to strengthen its security position in the Middle East and bind American policy with its own interests. This has expanded Israel’s "living space" and made American diplomatic strategy more inclined to support Israel, making it difficult to get out, and the Middle East may be more turbulent in the next few years.
For Syria, which has just fallen into chaos, Li Haidong said that further observation is needed. Because of the support behind the leaders of the new Syrian regime, it is uncertain how to straighten out the relationship with different religious factions in China.
Data map: Yin Xiyue.
Waves on the Peninsula: Is the political situation in South Korea stable?
On the Korean peninsula at the eastern end of the Eurasian continent, the dramatic martial law imposed by South Korean President Yin Xiyue in early December 2024 triggered a political earthquake, and the contradiction between the DPRK and the ROK further intensified.
After Yin Xiyue was impeached and suspended, she thought that South Korea’s political arena would be temporarily stable. As a result, when the New Year approached, the acting president’s Prime Minister Han Dezhu was also impeached, and South Korea seemed to be caught in an infinite cycle of "impeachment game". According to the plan, the Korean Constitutional Court will decide the impeachment case within 180 days, and if it is passed, a general election will be held within 60 days.
Regarding whether South Korea can make a smooth transition to the general election, Cui Hongjian believes that "the mainstream of Korean politics wants to avoid more accidents, which means that they must be legal and compliant when solving problems. This is a big test."
Cui Hongjian also pointed out that South Korea’s "political earthquake" not only affected itself, but in the past two years, the United States, Japan and South Korea have been constantly moving on peripheral security issues, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula is in a period of relatively high risk. If South Korea cannot effectively deal with it, it may lead to risk spillover and worsen the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
At the same time, Cui Hongjian believes that the attitude of the United States on the peninsula issue cannot be ignored. "After Trump takes office, factors from the United States may be conducive to the stability of the situation in the DPRK and the ROK, because he may not be keen on political disputes and peninsula security issues."
Dawn of peace: will a new rebalancing stage begin?
Not long ago, some netizens took out Michael Jackson’s "We Are the World" and teased: "Is today’s world worthy of this song?" It is a metaphor for 2024 when conflicts and contradictions continue to intensify.
Cui Hongjian is optimistic about whether 2025 can become the year of reconciliation: "2025 is likely to usher in an opportunity, because the main contradictions in the international community have basically emerged, and all parties have found that they have struggled for several years and have not achieved their goals, and their interests are still losing."
Cui Hongjian further pointed out that "a new rebalancing stage may be opened in 2025, including new political structure, development, military security, etc. The key is that once there is a window of opportunity, it cannot be let go."
How to seize the opportunity, Cui Hongjian gave three key points:
First, we should make full use of the coordination mechanism of major powers, return the relations between major powers to the track of mutual trust and communication, and solve specific problems such as economy, trade and regional security through benign interaction;
Secondly, while the effectiveness of traditional multilateral mechanisms such as the United Nations and WTO is weakened, we should make full use of emerging multilateral mechanisms and platforms such as G20 and BRICS countries to promote global governance.
The third point is whether the reform of the multilateral mechanism can be incorporated into the emerging forces such as the global South. In the eyes of some western countries, the global South is a game stage for big countries, and its power is scattered. Integrating the countries of the global South has become a key force, which is crucial for easing the international situation in 2025 and beyond. (End)
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