Yuantong rose by 70% and Yunda Shentong rose by 30%. What has Tongda experienced in these six months？

After taking the lead in releasing the announcement that the annual performance exceeded expectations, Yuantong’s share price rose by a daily limit on the 11th, with the cumulative maximum increase of 107% since the low of 8.79 yuan on July 28th.

The rise and fall of share price is a barometer of the development of the industry. In the long run, since the share price of Tongda Department fell into a trough in August, the share price of Yuantong has risen as high as 67% in the past six months, and Yunda and Shentong have also generally risen by about 30%.

Policies for the standardized development of the express delivery industry have been intensively introduced recently, and policy upgrading will become the biggest supporting force to break the volume competition in the express delivery industry.

| 01 Single-ticket revenue growth leads the way

"In 2021, it is estimated that the net profit will be 2 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, an increase of 233 million to 433 million yuan year-on-year, with an increase of 13.20% to 24.52% year-on-year; In the fourth quarter, it is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.046 billion to 1.246 billion yuan, an increase of 665 million to 865 million yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 17.468%-227.20%. "

On January 10th, as the first express delivery company, its performance also exceeded market expectations. In particular, the net profit in the fourth quarter increased by nearly 2 times year-on-year, compared with the third quarter.The increase rate is as high as 239.61%-304.54%.

Under the continuous high pressure of the industry’s anti-involution, express delivery companies have fully returned blood in the peak season. Taking Yuantong as an example, compared with the low point in July 2021,In November 2021, Yuantong’s single ticket revenue has increased by 28.22% to 2.59 yuan.The increase leads the whole industry. At the same time, the growth rate of single-ticket revenue of Yunda, Shentong and SF in November also fully recovered.

Yibao. com understands that the substantial improvement of single ticket revenue is not only the reason why the price war in the industry has stopped, but more importantly, the improvement of Yuantong’s own timeliness and service capabilities has led to the optimization of customer structure, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and the improvement of bargaining power.

Guohai Securities believes that under the background that vicious competition has stopped, industry prices have stabilized, and companies’ strategies have shifted from share priority to profit priority, Yuantong’s investment in digitalization and automation is about to usher in a dividend period, or it will enjoy a steady expansion of scale, a slight increase in single ticket revenue and a continuous improvement in costs.

At the same time, Yuantong continued to accumulate strength in the capital market. On December 3, 2021, YTO Express disclosed a total amount of 3.79 billion yuan, and the number of fixed issuance targets was finally determined to be 16. A number of top-notch institutions at home and abroad, including harvest fund, UBS AG and Gaoyi Assets, appeared.

In terms of market value, as of the close of January 11th, the market value of Yuantong was 64 billion, and that of Yunda was 63 billion. From capital to market,The battle for the second market share between them will continue to be staged.And it is expected to narrow the gap with Zhongtong in 2022.

Although Yuantong’s performance exceeded expectations, it is generally believed in the industry that the vicious price war will be suspended, but the express price war will not stop. Yuantong still faces the tests of terminal, service and cost reduction.

| 02 Business volume and market share are no longer unique.

Since 2022, the high-pressure situation at the level of express delivery supervision has not weakened.

On January 7, the State Post Bureau issued the draft of the Measures for the Administration of Express Delivery Market (Revised Draft) for comments.Re-emphasize that express delivery service should not be provided below the cost price.Protect the legitimate rights and interests of courier brother’s labor remuneration. Without the consent of the user, the express delivery enterprise shall not confirm the receipt of the express mail, and shall not deliver the express mail to the express terminal service facilities such as intelligent express box and express service station without authorization.

Yibao. com found that a series of policies are forcing express delivery enterprises to improve their service level, soliciting opinions, and proposing punishment measures for acts beyond the business scope or geographical scope of business license and entrusting other unqualified enterprises to operate express delivery business, so as to guide the express delivery industry to compete healthily and orderly.

The policies of the express delivery industry have been intensively introduced, the short-term price center of Tongda has moved up, the medium-and long-term development direction has been determined, and the industry has ushered in a turning point in competition. At the same time, the national video conference on postal management in 2022 predicts that the express delivery business volume will reach 122.5 billion pieces in 2022.The year-on-year growth slowed down to around 13%.

Under the background that the industry growth will obviously slow down and the price war will maintain a moderate trend, Yibao. com believes that express delivery enterprises can only promote the integration of core resources to enhance market competitiveness through service innovation, rational competition and protection of the legitimate rights and interests of practitioners.

In fact, since last year,Tongda has successively tested high-end service products to achieve differentiated positioning.Including yuantong yuanzhunda, yundazhi orange net, zhongtong Biao Kuai and Kuaidi network, etc., whether the head players can gradually shift from pursuing high growth rate to high quality has also become a major attraction in the express delivery market in 2022.

Regardless of the macro-environment or micro-market, from the beginning of 2022, the competition of express delivery industry will no longer be limited to the field of e-commerce, and market share and business volume are no longer the only indicators to measure the competition of express delivery enterprises.